CO₂-to-food pathways via synthetic fat and H₂ microbial protein outperform alternatives on energy, cost and land use
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J. B. García Martínez, N. Lazouski, R Milo, S. Lovat, M. Chintapalli, D. Denkenberger
Summary
We compare 12 ways of making food from CO₂ using electricity. We find that hydrogen-based microbial protein and synthetic fats are the most promising, using far less land and energy than many alternatives and potentially becoming cost-competitive with conventional proteins and fats. These technologies could reduce agriculture’s environmental impacts, improve food security, and produce food even where farming is difficult or disrupted.
Abstract
Power-to-food technologies could transform food systems by reducing CO₂, land, and water footprints while enhancing food security and global resilience. CO₂-to-food pathways span chemical synthesis (fats, sugars, starches) and fermentation routes using electrochemical feedstocks (acetate, sugars) or gases (e.g. hydrogen). Cost and environmental impacts are dominated by energy demands, making prioritization critical, yet comparisons are convoluted by inconsistent methods and assumptions across studies.
We develop a framework comparing energy efficiency, land productivity, and cost across twelve CO₂-to-food pathways, while providing future projections. Power-to-food efficiencies vary by ~10×, with synthetic fats and hydrogen microbial protein dominating: ~90% less land than conventional crops and ~99% less than animal products, ~5× more efficient than competing pathways (vertical farming, photobioreactors, heterotrophs), and considerable economic potential (~$2–8/kg dry)—against butter (~$4–7/kg), egg (~$5–32/kg), milk proteins (~$5–14/kg), or plant protein isolates (~$2–9/kg)—potentially unlocking massive sustainability, security, and animal welfare gains.