Feeding Everyone No Matter What
Experts have warned for decades that a global pandemic was imminent. Yet when COVID-19 struck, the world was largely unprepared. Moreover, as the public realized their cities would soon go into lockdown, their response was to hoard food, quickly emptying grocery store shelves — even as they were told there was no risk of a food shortage.
What will happen if, as experts predict, an even more devastating catastrophe occurs that actually does damage global food supplies?
If the climate changes dramatically — especially if the sun is blocked — or if there is a significant disruption to industry or shipping, global food supplies could dwindle. How can we continue to feed people and maintain peace if grocery stores truly do run out of food? ALLFED seeks to provide practical food solutions so that in the event of a global catastrophe governments and communities can respond quickly, save lives and reduce the risk to civilization.
Our COVID-19 Response
The threat of COVID-19 goes beyond the tragic death rate associated with the virus. As we’ve seen with our research, lockdowns and freezes on imports and exports, if poorly implemented, could create an even greater risk to life, as already vulnerable populations face increased food insecurity and possible starvation. We’re studying how governments can better respond to the virus to minimize its spread, while ensuring their citizens have enough to eat.
We’re sharing our research with relevant government officials in the countries that could be most negatively affected by food shortages, and we’re conducting further research to better understand what we can learn from this pandemic to help save lives if a catastrophe of even greater proportions strikes.
You can download our COVID-19 Cascading Food System Risk Report here.
Impacts of different types of catastrophes
Several human-caused and natural catastrophes could cause a significant disruption to our food production capability.
We estimate that these catastrophes could cause between a 3 – 30% reduction in our food production capacity. All of the disasters in living memory are less than 3% loss.
Based on current research there is an ~80% chance of significant food production loss this century.
Several human-caused and natural catastrophes could cause global-scale temporary or long-term electrical grid failure.
Without the electricity, the majority of industry and machinery would grind rapidly to a halt. As our current agricultural productivity depends on industry (mechanized planting/harvesting, fossil fuel based fertilizers and pesticides, etc.), many experts fear there would be mass starvation in these scenarios.
Based on current research there is an ~10% chance of loss of industrial civilisation this century.
Some human-caused and natural catastrophes could cause the total loss of our food production capability. On this page we will first discuss the catastrophes and then talk about what to do if one strikes.
Based on current research there is an ~10% chance of a total food production loss this century.