Food System Adaptation and Maintaining Trade Could Mitigate Global Famine in Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios
- M. Rivers, M. Hinge, K. Rassool, S. Blouin, F. U. Jehn, J. B. García Martínez, V. A. Grilo, V. Jaeck, R. J. Tieman, J. Mulhall, T. E. Butt, D.C. Denkenberger
Summary
After a major nuclear war, volcanic eruption or asteroid or comet impact that causes an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, agricultural yields would plummet. This study investigates how scaling up resilient foods and maintaining global trade could mitigate the crisis and potentially feed the global population.
Abstract
After a major nuclear war, volcanic eruption or asteroid or comet impact that causes an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, agricultural yields would plummet. We analyzed a nuclear winter scenario involving the injection of 150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere using a linear optimization model with and without global food trade. We investigated the effects of loss of global trade, some simple adaptations like rationing and storage of excess food for the coldest years, and rapid, largescale deployment of food sources which are less dependent on present day climate (so called resilient foods) including cool tolerant crops, methane single cell protein, lignocellulosic sugar, greenhouse crops, and seaweed. In the worst case of no global trade and no adaptations, the model predicts a global famine. However, scaling up resilient foods quickly could mitigate this for many countries. Maintaining global trade would further alleviate pressure on local food systems, unlocking the potential to feed the entire global population. However, insufficient preparation, postdisaster conflict, or economic collapse would worsen outcomes and hinder adaptation.