Water-based solutions

Bivalves, like clams, oysters, mussels, and scallops, are a promising resilient food source. They feed on phytoplankton, which would remain relatively unaffected by sunlight reduction compared to land crops, making them resilient in scenarios like a nuclear winter or a massive volcano eruption. Bivalves can be grown on ropes suspended in water and supported by buoys, a simple and efficient method requiring minimal external resources, similar to that of growing seaweed.

The current global production of bivalves averages 15 million tonnes annually, with 89% coming from aquaculture. Yields vary significantly, but mussels alone can produce 1,300–13,000 tonnes (dry weight) per square kilometer each year. With 31 million square kilometers of environmentally suitable areas for bivalve farming, even a fraction could meet the global population's caloric needs—within suitable coastal areas, estimates suggest bivalve farming could potentially provide around 7% of global food requirements.

Bivalves are nutritionally rich, offering high-quality protein (50-70% of their calorie content comes from protein), essential fatty acids like DHA and EPA, and important minerals like iron, zinc, and magnesium. However, their production cost, ranging from $1–4/kg (wet weight), is higher than other resilient foods. 

Recommended Research Areas

Modeling rapid bivalve farming expansion in catastrophic scenarios. 

Research potential impacts of reduced phytoplankton during crises and integration with seaweed farming. 

Krill, tiny crustaceans found in the ocean's mesopelagic zone, are among the most abundant animals on Earth, with an estimated biomass of at least 379 million tonnes, especially around the polar regions. They are a vital food source for marine life but are also highly nutritious for humans. 

Krill is rich in protein, containing all essential amino acids, and is packed with omega-3 fatty acids, antioxidants, and minerals like calcium, phosphate, and magnesium. Krill also supplies vitamins A and E, making it a nutrient-dense food source during global food shortages or catastrophes. Currently, krill fishing is concentrated in the Southwest Atlantic and North Pacific, with Antarctic krill (E. superba) and North Pacific krill (E. pacifica) accounting for annual catches of about 450,000 tonnes. 

Limitations for krill fishing as a resilient food solution include limited infrastructure, expertise, and technology for large-scale harvesting. Moreover, sustainable management of krill populations is crucial to avoid disrupting marine ecosystems. Advancing population monitoring and sustainable fishing practices would be necessary to scale up krill fishing during emergencies.

Recommended Research Areas

Characterize the potential, cost, and feasibility of rapid mass deployment of krill fishing technologies for ASRS and GCIL response.

Lead a catastrophe preparedness pilot experiment to assess how existing trawling fishing vessels and personnel could be utilized to increase krill catch.

Investigate low-cost industrial and distributed means to manufacture the fine mesh nets needed for harvesting krill.

Seaweed cultivation has significant potential to address food security, particularly during global catastrophes. Increasing seaweed production could be beneficial towards nutrition, employment, and mitigation of CO2 emissions. 

Historically practiced in East and Southeast Asia since the 1600s, seaweed farming has expanded rapidly over the past 70 years, reaching 35 million tonnes (wet mass) in 2019. An annual growth rate of 14% in seaweed production could yield 500 million tonnes (dry weight) by 2050, increasing global food supply by 10% and using only 0.03% of ocean surface. 

Scaling up seaweed species currently cultivated as a response to a global catastrophe would increase the availability of food for consumers, feed, and feedstock for biochemicals, biofuels, or other bioproducts, if needed.

Seaweed farming is relatively simple, requiring basic equipment like ropes and buoys. It can quickly expand using established techniques and, in a catastrophic scenario, seaweed could supply 10% of global caloric needs at $0.50/kg, while higher-cost production could meet even greater demands. People can only consume a limited amount of seaweed due to its high iodine and other mineral content; however, this can be addressed with cooking methods.  

Recommended Research Areas

Pilot testing of rapid seaweed deployment at scale to determine its feasibility for rapid food catastrophe response. 

Drafting a fast deployment plan to quickly ramp up seaweed cultivation in the event of a global catastrophe. 

Research on increasing the digestibility of seaweed.

Lemnaceae are the smallest flowering plants on Earth. More commonly referred to as duckweeds or water lentils, they grow in freshwater bodies and float on the surface. Due to their fast growth rate and nutritional composition, they are used in numerous sectors including food, pharmaceutical, and phytoremediation. Duckweed is rich in a protein called Rubisco (20-35%) and omega-3 fatty acids. 

Duckweed is resilient to a variety of severe environmental conditions, showing promise for extreme food catastrophe resilience thanks to its capacity to grow in low light intensity conditions (i.e. below 25 μmol m−2 s−1) — even lower than those in an ASRS — and its simplicity to cultivate (e.g., in small ponds or tanks), especially relevant to GCIL scenarios. It grows exceptionally fast, producing up to 10,000 tonnes of dry matter per km2. Rubisco is highly digestible and offers a complete nutritional profile and culinary versatility. For these reasons, many companies are working on the mass commercialization of duckweed proteins for use in plant-based foods.

The key challenges of duckweed production are that large biomass volumes are required, processing it is inefficient, and purification (necessary for human consumption) can be costly. 

Recommended Research Areas

Economic and scale-up models are needed to characterize the potential of duckweed as a resilient food source for global catastrophes.

Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) is an innovative method to farm together multiple species in a balanced ecosystem. It combines species that need external feeding, like finfish or shrimp, with species that extract nutrients from their surroundings, such as mussels and oysters, invertebrates like sea cucumbers, and seaweed. The waste from fed species fertilizes the others, creating a sustainable cycle. 

IMTA has been successfully implemented in many water regions worldwide, including the U.S., Canada, and several European countries. It holds vast potential, with up to 31 million km² of ocean deemed environmentally suitable for both finfish and molluscs. Currently, China leads IMTA development, producing vast amounts of shellfish and seaweed. The pioneering IMTA system in Sanggou Bay, China boasts yields of 2,400 tonnes per km² annually. 

The system's advantages include relatively simple construction for near-shore operations and ongoing improvements in efficiency and maintenance requirements. However, scaling IMTA globally requires incentives, regulatory changes, and further research to make it cost-effective and ready for rapid deployment in emergencies.

Recommended Research Areas

Exploring the potential, cost, and feasibility of rapid mass deployment of bivalve and seaweed cultivation in ASRS and GCIL, including IMTA.

The deep sea, specifically the mesopelagic zone, holds a largely untapped resource of fish, estimated at 10 billion tonnes of biomass, likely more dominant than the world's total fish biomass. 

Many deep-sea fish species are particularly rich in essential nutrients like omega-3 fatty acids and other key micronutrients, making them a valuable food source. Between 2015 and 2019, 26 vessels in the North-East Atlantic conducted deep-sea fishing operations, collectively spending 30,000 hours per year and harvesting approximately 105 tonnes of mesopelagic fish annually. 

Deep-sea fishing remains limited due to short seasons and inconsistent profitability. However, in an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS), mesopelagic fishing could help compensate when regular fish populations decline. Specialized shipping vessels for deep sea fishing are likely not required, but the vessels should be capable of capturing various different species of fish.

Challenges include finding locations that will yield higher catch rates and avoid excessive bycatch (unwanted fish species caught accidentally).

Recommended Research Areas

Preliminary analysis to characterize the potential, cost, and feasibility of rapid mass deployment of mesopelagic fishing technologies for ASRS and GCIL response.

Investigating cost-effective methods to process and convert bycatch into food.

Pilot projects to repurpose ships for mesopelagic fishing and improve efficiency to evaluate deep sea fishing's feasibility during crises.

Fish would continue to be a useful food source during global catastrophes. Currently, the world catches approximately 178 million tonnes (live weight) of aquatic animals (excluding mammals) annually, providing 7% of global protein needs and 1.7% of caloric intake. 

However, a global catastrophe, like a nuclear winter, could reduce fish populations due to less sunlight and cooler ocean temperatures. Cooler waters might increase nutrient upwelling in some areas, yet the overall effect on fish populations would likely remain negative.

Potential mitigation strategies include ocean fertilization with macronutrients like nitrate and phosphate to maintain fish populations. The primary limitation for expanded fishing operations would be the availability of fishing boats, though military, shipping, and personal craft boats could be repurposed for fishing activities. To optimize distribution, large vessels could facilitate ship-to-ship transfers. Effectively managing fisheries pre-crisis would increase the oceans’ potential contribution during a global catastrophic food failure and reduce the risk of a potential ocean ecosystem collapse resulting from it. 

To protect ocean biodiversity and fishermen’s livelihoods, focusing on resilient food options beyond fishing might be better for meeting protein needs during crises.

Recommended Research Areas

Testing the suggested mitigation strategies in advance to improve readiness.

Understanding and modeling how river nutrients might affect fisheries in crisis scenarios.