Global transformer overheating from geomagnetic storms
- M. Rivers, L. G. Gajewski, D. Denkenberger
Summary
Rivers, Gajewski, and Denkenberger (2024) developed a framework to assess the risk of geomagnetic storms causing long-term, widespread power outages by inducing currents that can overheat high-voltage transformers. Their model suggests that a severe geomagnetic storm with a 1 in 10,000 year probability could result in around 1% of the population in Europe and North America experiencing extended electricity loss, lasting from months to years.
Abstract
Geomagnetic storms occurring due to sustained, high-speed solar winds are known to induce currents in power distribution networks. These geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can cause high voltage transformers (HVT) to overheat, thus resulting in a catastrophic electricity loss (CEL). Since significant portions of infrastructures around the world rely heavily on access to electric power, it is essential to estimate the risks associated with GICs on a global scale. We assemble multiple methodologies across various scientific disciplines to develop a framework assessing the probability of a severe geomagnetic storm causing a long-term, widespread power outage. Our model incorporates thermal models of HVT tie bar hot spots, historical geoelectric field estimates, and a global conductivity model to estimate the risk of long-term power outage for regions between −70◦ and 80◦ geomagnetic latitude due to transformer overheating failure. Assuming a uniform 33% HVT spare capacity, our analysis indicates that a 1 in 10,000 year storm would result in approximately 1% of the population in Europe and North America experiencing a long-term (months to years) electricity loss.