Global agricultural shocks from Atlantic overturning collapse

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) functions as a critical climate tipping element, potentially capable of abrupt collapse under sustained anthropogenic forcing. Current agricultural impact assessments predominantly focus on ongoing climate change trajectories, leaving the global food system's vulnerability to a climate shock like an AMOC collapse unquantified. Here we show the global agricultural and economic consequences of such a collapse. By coupling a 100-year climate anomaly with global crop simulations, we identify a 5.3% structural decline in global wheat, maize, and rice production. We demonstrate that this biophysical penalty is geographically asymmetrical, triggering production collapses of 12% to 19% across highly concentrated Northern Hemisphere export hubs. Superimposing these reductions onto current global food trade networks reveals severe structural dietary deficits in import-dependent nations. Finally, economic modeling indicates that if this protracted multi-breadbasket failure outpaces market adaptation, global cereal prices could structurally spike by up to 40%. These findings provide a replicable pipeline from climate tipping points to human impact, underscoring the urgent necessity of preemptive, climate-resilient food infrastructure.