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Food trade disruption after global catastrophes

  • F. U. Jehn, Ł. G. Gajewski, J. Hedlund, C. W. Arnscheidt, L. Xia, N. Wunderling, D. Denkenberger
Pre-print available online from:
29 June 2024

Summary

Jehn et. al (2024) highlight the vulnerability of the global food trade system to major disruptions caused by global catastrophic risks (GCR), such as an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS) resulted from nuclear war or large-scale infrastructure loss. Their network model reveals that these events could drastically reduce food imports, with sunlight reduction leading to losses of 50-100% in many countries, emphasizing the importance of enhanced preparedness.

Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss (GCIL), Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS), Nuclear winter, Food & supply chains

Abstract

The global food trade system is resilient to minor disruptions but vulnerable to major ones. Major shocks can arise from global catastrophic risks, such as abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (e.g., nuclear war) or global catastrophic infrastructure loss (e.g., due to severe geomagnetic storms or a global pandemic). We use a network model to examine how these two scenarios could impact global food trade, focusing on wheat, maize, soybeans, and rice, accounting for about 60% of global calorie intake. Our findings indicate that an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, with soot emissions equivalent to a major nuclear war between India and Pakistan (37 Tg), could severely disrupt trade, causing most countries to lose the vast majority of their food imports (50-100 % decrease), primarily due to the main exporting countries being heavily affected. Global catastrophic infrastructure loss of the same magnitude as the abrupt sunlight reduction has a more homogeneous distribution of yield declines, resulting in most countries losing up to half of their food imports (25-50 % decrease). Thus, our analysis shows that both scenarios could significantly impact the food trade. However, the abrupt sunlight reduction scenario is likely more disruptive than global catastrophic infrastructure loss regarding the effects of yield reductions on food trade. This study underscores the vulnerabilities of the global food trade network to catastrophic risks and the need for enhanced preparedness.

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