Developing back-up plans to protect vital sectors in catastrophic pandemics
- J. Mulhall, O. Ozbek, B. Tial, L. Bowker-Lonnecker, N. Keßeler, N. Kiilu, N. Montazeri, S. Misurya, A. Patel, N. Wescombe, D. C. Denkenberger
Summary
Mass labor shortages in a catastrophic pandemic could pose a significant risk to the continuity of vital sectors, severely restricting the ability of countries to provide food, water, and other basic needs to their populations. In this study, we investigate vital sector preparedness by using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the availability of and demand for pandemic-proof personal protective equipment (P4E), reviewing literature on vulnerabilities and response plans, and interviewing experts.
Abstract
The supply of rapidly-mobilisable P4E in the United States was found to be insufficient, with estimated vital sector demand for respirators far exceeding amounts available in stockpiles. This is expected to be the case for almost all other nations, given most respirators are produced in China and the United States. Key risk-areas were found across vital sectors, such as high-transmission environments in food processing and vulnerable demographics of vital workers leading to disproportionately high burdens of infection. To enhance response planning, we propose five priority measures: (i) develop P4E allocation strategies, (ii) improve adaptations to workplaces (e.g., air quality) and work processes (e.g., shift schedules), (iii) establish worker sequestration protocols, (iv) address socioeconomic vulnerabilities, and (v) develop contingency plans for meeting basic needs in the event of infrastructure collapse. This research underscores the urgent need for future research and policy efforts to increase pandemic preparedness in vital sectors and provides actionable recommendations to begin doing so.