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Resilient foods for preventing global famine: a review of food supply interventions for global catastrophic food shocks including nuclear winter and infrastructure collapse

  • J. B. García Martínez, J. Behr, J. M. Pearce, D. C. Denkenberger
Published in Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition (in press) on:
12 November 2024

Summary

Global catastrophic threats like nuclear war, volcanic eruptions, and pandemics could severely disrupt agricultural yields and food supply systems. This research reviews interventions to maintain food production, such as the importance of rapid scaling, international trade, and resilient food solutions, to prevent mass starvation and civilizational collapse. García Martínez et. al additionally outline a future research and policy agenda.

Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss (GCIL), Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS), Nuclear winter, Agricultural Resilience, Food & supply chains, Research and development (R&D), Aquaculture (inc. seaweed, fishing), Crop relocation, Greenhouse

Abstract

Global catastrophic threats to the food system upon which human society depends are numerous. A nuclear war or volcanic eruption could collapse agricultural yields by inhibiting crop growth. Nuclear electromagnetic pulses or extreme pandemics could disrupt industry and mass-scale food supply by unprecedented levels. Global food storage is limited. What can be done? This article presents the state of the field on interventions to maintain food production in these scenarios, aiming to prevent mass starvation and reduce the chance of civilizational collapse and potential existential catastrophe. The potential for rapid scaling, affordability, and large-scale deployment is reviewed for a portfolio of food production methods over land, water, and industrial systems. Special focus is given to proposing avenues for further research and technology development and to collating policy proposals. Maintaining international trade and prioritizing crops for food instead of animal feed or biofuels is paramount. Both mature, proven methods (crop relocation, ruminants, greenhouses, seaweed, fishing, etc.) and novel resilient foods are characterized. A future research agenda is outlined, including scenario characterization, policy development, production ramp-up and economic analyses, and rapid deployment trials. Governments could implement national plans and task forces to address extreme food system risks, and invest in resilient food solutions to safeguard citizens against global catastrophic food failure. 

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