Long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions for loss of electricity/industry compared to artificial general intelligence safety
- D. C. Denkenberger, A. Sandberg, R. J. Tieman, J. M. Pearce
Summary
García Martínez et al. (2022) shows the potential of producing synthetic fat from paraffin wax to fulfill global fat dietary requirements in the event of a catastrophe such as nuclear winter. The analysis shows this requirement could be met within 1-2 years if a scaleup program of 24/7 construction of synthetic fat production facilities was implemented.
Abstract
Extreme solar storms, high-altitude electromagnetic pulses, and coordinated cyber attacks could disrupt regional/global electricity. Since electricity basically drives industry, industrial civilization could collapse without it. This could cause anthropological civilization (cities) to collapse, from which humanity might not recover, having long-term consequences. Previous work analyzed technical solutions to save nearly everyone despite industrial loss globally, including transition to animals powering farming and transportation. The present work estimates cost-effectiveness for the long-term future with a Monte Carlo (probabilistic) model. Model 1, partly based on a poll of Effective Altruism conference participants, finds a confidence that industrial loss preparation is more cost-effective than artificial general intelligence safety of ~ 88% and ~ 99+% for the 30 millionth dollar spent on industrial loss interventions and the margin now, respectively. Model 2 populated by one of the authors produces ~ 50% and ~ 99% confidence, respectively. These confidences are likely to be reduced by model and theory uncertainty, but the conclusion of industrial loss interventions being more cost-effective was robust to changing the most important 4–7 variables simultaneously to their pessimistic ends. Both cause areas save expected lives cheaply in the present generation and funding to preparation for industrial loss is particularly urgent.