Land based solutions

Leveraging the amount of food that is freely available in the wild, including garlic, nettle, fungi, seaweed, fruits, and nuts, is a simple and helpful way to feed the population in a global catastrophe, avoiding significant scaleup time. Many species can survive in extreme conditions, such as dark, cold conditions following an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS). For example, tropical wild edible plants, such as konjac, wild cassava, vegetable amaranths, and safou—that are traditionally foraged—have been proposed as potentially viable for foraging following an ASRS, for both immediate consumption and for cultivation.

Foraging avoids dependence on agricultural inputs like fertilizers, water, or energy and offers immediate access to resources. It builds resilience through adaptability and preserves ancestral and community knowledge.

However, its effectiveness depends on environmental conditions following a catastrophe, local biodiversity, and the forager's knowledge and skills, which are especially important—knowing what foods are edible and not (or are poisonous) is key in order to be safe and practical, and this knowledge is quite rare.

Recommended Research Areas

More analysis is needed to ascertain the potential of foraging and the means to leverage it as a catastrophe resilience intervention.

Mushrooms can be grown both outdoors in the natural environment or indoors in dark, cool, and slightly damp conditions. They are relatively fast-growing as a food source, enabling a quick ramp-up (each one can produce a billion spores). They are also easy to grow even with limited infrastructure, adaptable to various environments, provide vitamin D when treated with ultraviolet light, and their waste can be used as feed for other organisms.

However, it is estimated that in 2021 the global mushroom production was 44 million tonnes, which works out to only about 0.2% of the minimum recommended caloric intake for the global population, as the vast majority of the mushroom mass is water (typically ~85-95%). They are also costlier compared to other resilient foods, presenting challenges in terms of energy output and cost-effectiveness.

Recommended Research Areas

Assess the feasibility of individuals growing a large percentage of their calories from mushrooms, perhaps in basements with limited training and electricity, as it could be relevant for combined ASRS and GCIL scenarios. 

Testing how the waste from mushrooms could be used as a feed source for organisms, such as ruminants that are able to digest cellulose.

LPC is a protein-rich, nutrient-dense food made using the non-toxic non-woody parts of plants, including those not typically used as food crops. Producing LPC often consists of mechanically pressing the leaves to produce the pulp, heating the protein, and separating and drying it. LPC can be consumed in a variety of forms, such as protein powder or concentrate, and is currently consumed by both people and animals. 

The simplicity of the process and accessibility of plant matter in most locations make LPC a resilient food option during a catastrophe. LPC has great potential to bridge nutritional deficits including protein, vitamins, minerals, and a combination of essential amino acids (if properly consumed), making them a suitable alternative to animal foods.

One significant barrier is its often bitter, grassy taste.

Recommended Research Areas

Creating a publicly available database of proven safe-to-eat LPCs is a key opportunity for making LPC more commercially viable, to address the challenge of most leaves not being practical for LPC production.

Mapping the distribution of relevant forest classes and leaf biomass for LPC.

There is a vast amount of land that is not currently harvested for agricultural use. Government financial support could help make land that is currently too expensive to use economically viable and convert new areas into profitable croplands. In addition, switching cropland that is used for non-food crops (e.g., cotton and tobacco) to food crops could make an additional 2 million km2 available for food production globally. 

The main technologies required to expand cropland include construction equipment to level the land and remove debris. Therefore, the main bottleneck for rapid mass expansion would likely be the availability of this machinery, especially in regions where it is not commonly in use. One way to address this could be for different countries to share equipment to expedite planted area expansion as a resilient food response to ASRS.

Recommended Research Areas

Research on additional crop models to better assess the production potential of crop area expansion. For instance, some areas currently supporting isolated shrubs or arid vegetation could become arable in an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS).

Simulating nuclear winter conditions with an air-conditioned greenhouse in some of these promising areas could be valuable to assess the viability in actual soil conditions.

Research into rapid redirection of water and irrigation implementation to new cultivation areas.

Greenhouses are a quick and effective method to supplement crop relocation, enable the cultivation of additional crops, and improve the yield per hectare of crops. They create controlled environments that protect crops from external disruptions by trapping heat from sunlight to create a warmer environment for crop growth. They are typically made of transparent walls and roofs made of materials like glass or plastic. 

Low-tech open-source greenhouse designs are highly suitable in the event of a catastrophe; they are based on plastic (polymer) sheets and simple wooden or plastic structures and can use low-cost, open-source automatic irrigation systems. If the necessary processes to ramp up greenhouse development and deployment can be successfully executed in a catastrophe, then they could potentially provide ~30% of the global food requirements after the first year. However, polymer extrusion capacity could be a significant bottleneck.

Recommended Research Areas

Detailed modeling of the environmental conditions inside greenhouses in an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS).

Research alternative ways of scaling low-tech greenhouses, such as polymer tube framing and household scale lumber production.

Perform structural analyses to find the most suitable designs, given the potential risks from adverse meteorological conditions.

Testing the mass fast deployment of greenhouse technology to assess the necessary infrastructure for it.

In the event of an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS), where sunlight is reduced and temperatures lowered, we could relocate cold tolerant crops from higher latitudes, where they are often grown, to lower latitude regions where temperatures would likely remain suitable for their cultivation and a large amount of arable land would be available. These crops are capable of withstanding temperatures between 0°C and 15°C and include potatoes, carrots, rapeseed/canola, some types of beans, wheat, sugar beet, and barley. 

Models of reconfiguring crop distribution show it is possible to feed an additional 825 million people in the world today using current croplands while also using 12-14% less water. These crops would then supply a wide range of essential vitamins and minerals and, if allocated effectively, have the potential to fulfill a very significant part of humanity’s nutritional needs following a global catastrophe. However, this solution would be severely limited without international food trade.

Recommended Research Areas

Testing the deployment of relevant crops under simulated ASRS conditions to validate crop growth models. 

Testing the capacity of farmers to rapidly switch en masse to crop varieties they are unfamiliar with, to understand its feasibility and how it might impact yields. 

Developing crop strains that can survive in extreme environmental conditions.

Ruminants (e.g. cows, sheep, goats) can play a crucial role in a catastrophe because of their unique ability to consume inedible plant materials, such as grass, straw, and other cellulose-rich biomass, and produce valuable resources like milk or provide a source of meat for human consumption.

One downside is that ruminants require substantial energy input per edible calorie produced. Additionally, modern dairy breeds are typically grain-fed and may require adaptation to survive on purely herbal diets when sustained on lower-quality forage or wheat straws.

Certain insects (e.g., beetles, fly larvae, and termites) can consume grass or agricultural residue and convert it into edible protein, while some mollusks (e.g., shipworms) can live on wood. While somewhat more energy-efficient than traditional livestock, insects have remained expensive, with the industry unable to deliver on its promise to use agricultural residue economically at scale, despite massive investment. Other challenges include low cultural acceptance, and scaling difficulties. 

Recommended Research Areas

Trials on feeding agricultural residues to ruminants and insects to see how they perform in terms of calories in versus calories out. 

Studies on the feasibility and economics of maintaining existing (Holstein) dairy herds exclusively and primarily on agricultural residues.