Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions for Alternate Food to Address Agricultural Catastrophes Globally
- D. C. Denkenberger, J. M. Pearce, A. R. Taylor, R. Black
Summary
A 10% loss in agriculture could lead to about 500 million deaths globally. This paper demonstrates that implementing resilient foods could save millions of lives (and prevent the possible collapse of civilization) in such a catastrophe, and is far more cost-effective than the current best life-saving interventions. It is crucial to start preparations ahead of a catastrophe.
Abstract
The literature suggests there is ~0.3 percent chance per year of full-scale nuclear war. This event would have ~20 percent probability of causing U.S. mass starvation due to collapse of conventional agriculture from smoke blocking the sun. Alternate foods exploit fossil fuels (e.g. methane digesting bacteria) and stored biomass (e.g. mushrooms growing on dead 16 trees) and are technically capable of saving all Americans from starving. However, current awareness is low and the technologies need to be better developed. This Monte Carlo study investigates the economics of three interventions including planning, research and development. Even the upper bound of $20,000 per life saved is far lower than the millions of dollars typically paid to save an American life. Therefore, it should be a high priority to implement these interventions as they would improve American resilience and reduce the possibility of civilization collapse.