How do we feed everyone if a global catastrophe

affects our ability to grow food?

How would we feed everyone if the sun was blocked or if there was a significant disruption to industry? ALLFED is working on planning, preparedness and research into practical food solutions so that in the event of a global catastrophe we can respond quickly and save lives and reduce the risk to civilization.

Food storage might seem like the obvious solution but it is very expensive, so we are researching alternative food sources that can scaled up quickly that don’t require the sun.

Ideally these catastrophes would not happen and we support efforts to avoid them. Our research focuses on global catastrophic events rather than smaller scale disasters but some of our research may have implications for how we deal with current disasters. We are also focused on events where people have survived rather than human extinction events.

Impacts of different types of catastrophes

Significant Food Production Loss

Several human-caused and natural catastrophes could cause a significant disruption to our food production capability.

We estimate that these catastrophes could cause between a 3 – 30% reduction in our food production capacity. All of the disasters in living memory are less than 3% loss.

Based on current research there is an ~80% chance of significant food production loss this century.

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Loss of Industrial Civilization

Several human-caused and natural catastrophes could cause global-scale temporary or long-term electrical grid failure.

Without the electricity, the majority of industry and machinery would grind rapidly to a halt. As our current agricultural productivity depends on industry  (mechanized planting/harvesting, fossil fuel based fertilizers and pesticides, etc.), many experts fear there would be mass starvation in these scenarios.

Based on current research there is an ~10% chance of loss of industrial civilisation this century.

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Total Food Production Loss

Some human-caused and natural catastrophes could cause the total loss of our food production capability. On this page we will first discuss the catastrophes and then talk about what to do if one strikes.

Based on current research there is an ~10% chance of a total food production loss this century.

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